As the recent effort by former president Donald Trump to discredit the electoral victory of President Joe Biden demonstrates, even in democratic systems with robust legal procedures and long-standing conventions governing the peaceful transfer of power, succession can be more precarious than commonly imagined. The peaceful, orderly, and regular transfer of power, while largely taken for granted in modern democracies, remains a source of conflict and instability around the world. Is Xi akin to Stalin after the purges of the 1930s - a leader who has so thoroughly eliminated rivals and cowed the system that he will remain in power until he can no longer perform the duties of office, leaving a succession battle in his wake? Or will the system produce a Newtonian reaction against his all-encompassing power, either forcing him out of office prematurely or at least pushing him to set a timetable for his departure? Alternatively, what are Xi’s options for a middle path between these scenarios, an orderly succession in the next 5 to 10 years? This paper assesses China’s possible leadership succession scenarios in the coming years and decades. In doing so, he has pushed China towards a potential destabilising succession crisis, one with profound implications for the international order and global commerce. By removing de jure term limits on the office of the presidency - and thus far refusing to nominate his successor for this and his other leadership positions - Xi has solidified his own authority at the expense of the most important political reform of the last four decades: the regular and peaceful transfer of power. His drive for power, however, has destabilised elite political consensus and dismantled power-sharing norms that evolved since the 1980s. Myron Rush, The Khrushchev Succession Problem, 1962 Īfter nearly nine years in office, Xi Jinping now stands as the overwhelmingly dominant figure in China’s political system, having gained command of the military, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) apparatus, and diplomatic and economic policymaking, all while sidelining or locking up rivals to his leadership. That dread day casts a long shadow before, influencing the period of dictatorial rule by anticipation.” “In any personal dictatorship or tyranny, one thing is certain: someday there will be a succession crisis.
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